Who Is Likely to Win the 2025 CrossFit Games? Breaking Down the Top Contenders

Hayden Wilcox
Jul 24
3 min read

The CrossFit Games is the ultimate proving ground for the fittest athletes on earth. As the 2025 Games approach, the community is buzzing with predictions, fan favorites, and bold takes. But amidst all the hype, one question stands out: who is most likely to win it all this year?

Let’s dive deep into the top contenders for both the men’s and women’s divisions, their recent performances, and what might give them the edge at this year’s showdown.

CROSSFIT/ WEIGHTLIFTING CHALK

Women’s Division Favorite: Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr

Credentials That Speak for Themselves

Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr is already a CrossFit legend. She’s won an unprecedented seven CrossFit Games titles (2017-2022, 2024), making her the most decorated athlete in the sport’s history. She took a brief maternity break in 2023 but returned in 2024 stronger than ever, dominating the field and silencing all doubts.

Now, she's on track for her eighth title in 2025, which would further cement her legacy as the greatest of all time.

2025 Season Update

Tia has been training hard and already shown elite-level form in early-season events.
She’s secured her Games spot through Torian Pro, the Oceania semifinal event.
In her own words, 2025 is "going to hurt like hell," suggesting she's pushing the limits again.

“I’m going after it like I’ve never won before.” - Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr (Barbell Spin)

Why She’s the One to Beat

Elite mental toughness: Tia thrives under pressure.
Event versatility: From Olympic lifts to endurance events, she’s top-tier across the board.
Veteran experience: No other female athlete has competed at such a high level for so long.

If she qualifies cleanly, Tia is the safest bet to win the women’s title in 2025.

Men’s Division Favorite: Jeffrey Adler

A Champion in His Prime

Jeffrey Adler is no longer the underdog - he’s a proven champion. After claiming the 2023 CrossFit Games title, he continued to build momentum by winning the 2024 Rogue Invitational, showcasing his ability to perform under pressure and against the world's best.

Dominating the 2025 Season

Adler cruised through the Open and in-affiliate Semifinals.
He’s posted consistently top finishes in strength, gymnastics, and endurance-based events.
He’s known for a calm, calculated approach that works well in multi-day competitions.

Why Adler Could Repeat

No real weaknesses: He’s well-rounded and strategic.
Momentum: Adler is riding the high of back-to-back elite performances.
Leadership: With big names like Fraser retired and Medeiros inconsistent, Adler’s consistency is unmatched.

Unless there’s a major upset or injury, Jeffrey Adler is the frontrunner for the 2025 men’s crown.

Other Athletes to Watch

Women’s Division

Laura Horváth: 2023 champ and one of the strongest female athletes in terms of raw power. She didn’t compete in 2024, so she enters this season well-rested and hungry.
Emma Lawson: Young phenom from Canada, podiumed in 2023. Many analysts expect her to land top 3 again this year.
Siria Meha: Rookie sensation who's already raising eyebrows with impressive Semifinals scores.

Men’s Division

Dallin Pepper: Barbell Spin predicts he could shock the world and take top 3. He’s strong, young, and getting smarter each year.
Austin Hatfield: Quietly making waves after winning the Mayhem Classic and Semifinals. His pace and grit are Games-ready.
Colten Mertens: Won the 2025 Open. Could be a breakout performer if the programming suits his skillset.

Prediction Summary Table

Division	Favorite	Contenders	Why They Stand Out
Women	Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr	Laura Horváth, Emma Lawson	GOAT status, unstoppable when qualified
Men	Jeffrey Adler	Dallin Pepper, Austin Hatfield	Balanced, experienced, and dialed-in for 2025

Final Thoughts

The 2025 CrossFit Games is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and competitive in recent memory. While new talent is always rising, two names still reign supreme:

Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr, if she qualifies, is still the fittest woman on Earth.
Jeffrey Adler is entering his prime and shows no signs of slowing down.